plague

In these information-rich times, you need to do decision-making The number of times it has been done is much higher.

(there are) some (who are) decision-making relatively significant： Where to develop？ Which lot to buy a house in？ Married to whom?？ Which school should the child attend?？ What car to buy？……

(there are) some (who are) decision-making Not so significant： Take a taxi or take a car？ What to eat in the evening？ Which restaurant do you eat at?？ Which one of these dresses should I choose?？……

decision-making Need to think， Do you like to think?？

If you like it, here's a secret - you're in a very small minority of the crowd and have the potential to be a leader.

Most people, don't like to think at all.

The book Thinking, Fast and Slow tells us that the human brain has 2 systems of thought. One is quick and effortless, but does not think finely; one takes longer, but can think more carefully and comprehensively.

Most people righteously choose System 1, seeking to save effort for the best. Some even said sadly: I might as well kill myself for making me think deeply!

You can't hide from decisions, but you refuse to bother thinking about them, so you get suffocated in the deluge of information. What to do?

Luckily, there is a program called trick The stuff.

trick

When you go to buy a car, some people start gathering information about the vehicle online months in advance, knowing the pros and cons of various makes, models and configurations of vehicles backwards and forwards. What about people who are too lazy to carry? Of course there's a way. When they see a car that looks past from the outside, they open the door, then close it and listen to the sound. If the sound is thick, you will be pleased and buy it gladly; otherwise, you will turn your head and leave. In their opinion, the sound is thick this targets It represents a vehicle that is made of solid materials and is safer.

You're in a new city.， I'm going to pick a restaurant for dinner.。 Walking in a busy area， Seeing a bunch of unrecognizable front signs， How do you choose?？ some people too Found it. trick—— Let's see which one has a longer line at the door.。 So the longer the line at the restaurant.， The more people will line up at the door.。 Unless I can't make it today.， Only then did he stop.。

There are hundreds and hundreds of stocks in the stock market， The choices are dizzying。 Each company has a different main business、 Different capital liability structures， out at different stages of development， Facing different markets and different competitors。 Investigate them one by one.， What a pain in the ass.。 Some stockholders don't care.， Because they don't even bother to investigate the content。 They have their own trick——K line drawing。 Through technical analysis methods， Just scan the price movement of a particular stock， I'll be able to make an immediate judgment， Choose to buy or sell。

streamline

Think of the tricks that can avoid You think deeply, yet it can help you speed decision-making， How did such a good thing come about?？

speak frankly， trick It's just that... streamline The post-model。 Such models do not reflect the full complexity of the real world， but can be greatly streamline Your thinking workload。 In economics， There is a proper noun used to describe this model， be called“ Proxy variables”。

Say for example that you intend to examine the economic development of a place, and there are various indicators that need to be observed. But this "proxy variable" allows you to make a quick judgment of the full picture.

For example, you can find a tall building and go at night to see the whole city lit up at night.

Or if you happen to know that the local population prefers a lighter diet and the migrant workers prefer stimulating foods, then go to the supermarket and ask about chili sales.

What a great trick to save time and effort.

nevertheless， Relative to complex real-world models， your streamline models easily Something will go wrong.

You could get a car with mediocre credentials and only a good closing sound.

You waited in line for hours to try a meal from this amazing restaurant. And then a grin, it's awful!

Think back, you have studied technical analysis books seriously for the past few years and really made big money inside the stock market continuously?

camouflage

The biggest problem with many of these tricks is that they aren't secrets at all. All parties involved in the game know it by heart.

You don't want to spend time investigating vehicle parameters， Just going to use the simple criterion of closing the door sound to filter。 Manufacturers understand this trick post-existence（ It's been basic common sense for a long time）， They then organized a team specifically to work on how to make the sound of the door closing more in line with the customer's needs。 You spent more money.， Just got a better sounding closing door。

You don't want to do your homework to find out about local restaurants， I'm going to be lazy.， Measuring the popularity of a meal by the length of the queue at the entrance of the restaurant。 The merchant, of course. too Know this. trick。 Many restaurants will have various promotions, both explicit and implicit， Attract price-sensitive customers to eat。 furthermore， The merchant will use“ starvation marketing” strategy， Artificially created undersupply。 If you've been to the bank for business， come across10 Only one window3、4 Scenes of work， It shouldn't be hard to understand what it means to be undersupplied， and the effect it has on the length of the team。

Do you think you can be invincible inside the stock market after mastering all the contents of a book "Technical Analysis of Stocks XX"? Countless stockholders are thinking the same thing as you. The problem is that the book, which has a price tag of less than $50, they too I've seen it all. If there were stock market money making tricks, would you be willing to write them in a book and sell them for $50 a copy? Everyone makes money in the stock market, so whose money do you make? When you look around and can't even find out who the fool is, ahem ......

You're holding an oversimplified model in your hand as a treasure. People can blindside you just by going with the flow.

In evolutionary biology, this ability is called mimicry.

Do you see something odd in this photo of a four-spotted butterflyfish (Chaetodon capistratus)?

Yes, it actually has eyes on its tail!

Actually, it's not an eye. It's just a speck that looks like an eye.

What's the point of growing up like this? Because predators mostly go down on the head of their prey. Where's the head? Where the eyes are! The prey will take one look at the large spot and think it's the head of a four-spotted butterflyfish and take a bite; it still has a chance to escape.

What about animals, what about people?

methods

How to avoid it trick The pit that brings？

act as decision-making prior to， Distinguish first decision-making of value。

For the less important ones decision-making， usable trick usefulness trick， How to save money.。 Actually, not to mention the use of trick， It's a coin toss, a dice toss.。 Not much gain anyway、 Limited damage。 You should have enough mental capacity。 limited mental capacity， Don't waste when it's time to save。

For important decision-making， Especially important in the gaming environment decision-making， Let's leave behind the speculation.。 Do your homework when you have to.， If you need advice, ask for it.。 It's against human nature, which is engrained in our genes.。 But who asked you to live in today's world where the whole network is connected without dead ends、 What about the age of information flooding？ The old fishing and hunting farming era methods Not helpful in dealing with today's complex new issues。

It's a good thing we have help, too. To deal with new problems, one has to use new technologies。

Want to choose a car? No need to scour around for vehicle information and sporadic distribution of reviews. Open any of the many comprehensive car apps and it will help you find a reputable car that meets your needs instantly and within your budget constraints. The filtering model in the backend uses not simplified metrics like the sound of closing doors, but dozens and hundreds of data types.

Looking for a restaurant to eat at? Is the guest looking for taste or ambience? Is the focus on quality of service or speed of serving? There are various review sites at home and Yelp and others abroad that can help you avoid various pitfalls. And by filtering through group intelligence, they can also help you figure out which signature dishes are really worth ordering.

See, technology is important in life, right?

You're saying that this technical approach only solves small problems like eating and dressing and not big problems like stock investing?

Oh.

There's a portfolio company that was founded by a group of scientists and technologists.， named“ Renaissance Technologies, Inc.”（Renaissance Technologies）。 This company has a mysterious team of“ Grand Medal Fund”， The mathematical modeling approach is used， Automatic investment formation decision-making。 From the date of creation until the manager James Simons（ A senior student of mathematics master Mr. Chen Shoushin） retirement， The fund's average annual returns over the decades have been well above30%， Much brighter investment performance than Warren Buffett。

Let's review these two sentences together.

Technology is the first productive force! Knowledge is wealth!

To add.， If your trick It really works.…… Keep it a secret.， beat to death too cannot say。 :-P

discussions

What else have you used? trick What? Do they work? If someone else knows the trick, will it continue to work? Feel free to leave a comment and let's discuss.

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