cool hit counter Don't just focus on electric cars for oil demand_Intefrankly

Don't just focus on electric cars for oil demand


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IHS Marketing today released a feature analysis article by Vice President Jim Burkhard that discusses Electric VehiclesImpact on oil demand.

According to the article, there are now almost daily media reports about increased Electric VehiclesSales plans, news of reduced fuel car use, saying some of the plans, if they do come to fruition, will have a huge impact. France, the United States, China and other countries have announced plans and expressed intentions to end the sale of new internal combustion engine powered cars only. Automakers also plan to increase the number of electric vehicle models produced from about 190 in 2017 to more than 300 by 2020

With all the news about electric cars, one wonders if the oil market has really reached a "cliff top" in terms of demand as the oil monopoly on transportation fuels shrinks. Many governments of major oil-consuming countries have adopted policies to limit or even reverse the growth of oil demand. However. The most influential policy is not electric vehicles, and fuel economy and emissions standards have a greater impact on oil demand than electric vehicle sales

Fuel economy and emissions standards must be met in the world's largest oil-consuming and automotive markets, including China, the European Union, India, Japan and the United States. Higher fuel economy standards have not garnered the same media attention as electric cars, but the impact on oil consumption has been strong and this will continue.

For example, in the United States, Passenger cars and light trucks currently on the road(LDV) There are about2.55 billion vehicles, compare10 Increase by about1800 10,000 vehicles, And almost all of them are fuel cars.( percentage of99.7%)。 Vehicle miles traveled in the United States are also increasing,2017 annual growth rate2007 The year has improved by about5%。 There are more cars running on the road, Mileage has also increased, One might think that the oil consumption of cars would naturally increase, But wrong., The United States now uses the same amount of fuel as2007 Year roughly the same。 it is (thus) clear that, It is fuel economy standards that affect oil demand, Not really. Electric Vehicles。 America on the Road Electric Vehicles seldom, Except Norway, About the same as the rest of the world.。 Currently buying a new car in the US, Its fuel efficiency is higher than2007 sophomore25%,2007 The year was the first time in a generation that the United States raised its fuel economy standards。

One might ask why, given the 25% increase in fuel efficiency of new U.S. cars, there has been no reduction in U.S. oil consumption. The reason for this is that the cumulative shadow effect from new vehicle sales is very slow in terms of the overall vehicle fuel economy. Cars can't just change like a smart phone, and a car is typically on the road for 12 to 15 years. Cars that were on the road in 2007 are still on the road today, though the increase in fuel economy standards will certainly affect long-term oil demand.

IHS Marketing's recently completed study, Reinventing the Wheel, evaluates the future forces that can influence the shaping of the automotive ecosystem in the transportation marketplace in terms of technology, policy, consumer preferences, new entrants and business models. Compared to the last century, the Several years ahead, Due to the unmanned、 Mobile service companies and Electric Vehicles, The automotive ecosystem will change even more

Electric vehicles have attracted a lot of attention, but fuel economy standards have had a much greater impact on limiting oil demand. Assuming no increase in fuel economy standards and no electric vehicles, global automotive (LDV) oil demand will exceed 18 million barrels per day by 2040. If you exclude the impact of electric vehicles and consider the fuel economy criteria for cars, that would have a much smaller impact on oil demand.

Burkhard says it's undeniable Electric vehicles will be a competitor to fuel-fired internal combustion engines, but the real impact on oil demand will come primarily from fuel economy and emissions standards

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Editor|Zi Ming


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