cool hit counter In 10 years, 50% of the population will be unemployed!_Intefrankly

In 10 years, 50% of the population will be unemployed!


I've been reading through people's comments in the comments section lately, and I've noticed that some of you have a really unique perspective on the interpretation of national policy.

For example, if government subsidies can boost production, then it's good to keep supporting it.

Artificial intelligence will put us out of work, and thoughts on the recent tariffs, etc.

Yet are things really what we understand them to be? Let's break it down together.

One: Are ongoing government subsidies good or bad

In order to support the development of a certain industry, the government usually has some policies to take care of it, such as the recent subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles, lower fees for loans to small and micro enterprises, and so on.

These supports have indeed had a positive effect on the development of these enterprises in the short term, allowing them to receive more market attention and favour, as well as more funds for development.

However, this is all based on the short term and if this continues in the long term, then it is not certain whether it will be good or bad for the business.

For example, the government is very strong in new energy vehicles, both in terms of purchase tax exemptions and subsidies for vehicle purchases.

But with good policies, we do not see which new types of enterprises have emerged across the board, but rather some of them have gone so far as to exploit the loopholes to cheat the government subsidies.

According to the official website of the Ministry of Finance, the "Notice on the Special Inspection of Subsidy Funds for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" shows that Fraudulent subsidy funding in the new energy vehicle sector reached up to billions of dollars in 2016.

And, policy support for a particular industry will cause more people to run to the same industry, which over time can easily lead to overcapacity, which is bad for the internal competition of the industry.

As far as policy support is concerned, support in the short term must be beneficial, while it may be counter-productive if support is provided all the time in the long term.

Two: The age of artificial intelligence is here, so we'll have even fewer jobs in the future?

When we think of artificial intelligence, the first thing that comes to mind is the omnipotent robot that can sweep the floor, sell things in the supermarket, play chess, etc.

We feel as if there's nothing a robot can't do, and people don't have to be paid by their bosses.

Then, in that case, our employment opportunities will become less and less in the future, is that really the case?

Let me give you an example, the familiar sheep spinning machine was invented in 1760 when there were about 7,900 or so people working in weaving in England.

Yet what happened afterwards?

In 1987, there were 320,000 textile workers in England! Unemployed?

From our point of view, industrial production becomes more efficient, then goods become cheaper.

Items that we used to be able to buy for $200 may now be available for $150, so the $50 we save we choose to spend elsewhere, such as entertainment spending, etc.

Wouldn't this add some new employment and entrepreneurial opportunities?

and from manufacturer The use of large machines for production did cause an increase in unemployment in the short term, to put it in perspective.

But with increased productivity, the profits from sales are bound to increase. Since he can make money, will he choose to continue to open factories or invest in other industries?

Wouldn't that provide employment opportunities as well?

Li Kaifu believes that image recognition, voice recognition, machine recognition rate has surpassed the human recognition rate, which means that those who mainly rely on "listen" and "see" to eat to be replaced by machines.

For example, security guards who "look at faces" as their core job, and those who "listen" for a living - customer service, translators.

"Every area of AI has the potential to disrupt traditional companies, and for every valuable robot created, a person or group of people will lose their jobs, which has a very big impact on society.

In 10-15 years, 90% of the world's jobs, and perhaps 50% of humans may be facing partial or total job replacement . "I'm sorry," said Kai-Fu Lee.

III: Will increasing tariffs necessarily protect local businesses?

Raising tariffs does protect their own local businesses in the short term. But untimely and excessive tariffs are detrimental to local businesses.

Take this US tariff increase and say that we sell our aluminum exports to their countries so cheaply that everyone buys ours and no one buys their domestic companies'.

So to put tariffs on us and force us to raise our sales prices so that their goods might have someone to buy them.

As a result, our prices have gone up, and where Americans could have bought cheap aluminum, they now can't.

Take the U.S. beer companies, the cost of cans has increased, raising the sales price will inevitably cause a relative decrease in sales, not to raise the sales price, then corporate profits will have to be reduced, so, you say it is good or bad.

And they have increased tariffs, and they have been countered by us, and we have increased tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, and now it's becoming much more difficult for U.S. agricultural products to be exported to China than it was before, and farmers are suffering.

Therefore, there are a thousand Hamlets in the minds of a thousand people. For the same matter, different people look at it from different angles and come to different conclusions, so regarding the interpretation of the policy, we should also consider it from a number of aspects.


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