cool hit counter Mainstream Digital Currency Price Correlation Factor Analysis - Bitcoin_Intefrankly

Mainstream Digital Currency Price Correlation Factor Analysis - Bitcoin


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Since its establishment on February 1, 2018, the Fireball Institute has released several rating reports and exclusive features, striving for detailed and accurate information on the content of the research and disclosure objects, speaking with public data, and receiving good feedback from many users; in the coming days, we will continue to expand the scope and depth of the Institute's research, and strive to bring you a better analysis of the value of the industry

Bitcoin price related factor analysis

(Data source: https://www.quandl.com/data/BCHAIN-Blockchain, Fireball Institute)

Looking at the data, the number of active addresses for bitcoin shows a kind of substantial vibration with a general trend upwards, while there are also clear peaks, reached in late December '17 and early January '18 respectively, which also coincides with the price of bitcoin peak period It's consistent. At the moment, it seems that the overall market has flattened out as digital currencies like Bitcoin have seen their prices cut back or even more, and investors are generally in a wait-and-see mode, resulting in an even lower number of active addresses than before the current bull market.

Again, take a look at the 10-day average graph for active addresses

(Data source: https://www.quandl.com/data/BCHAIN-Blockchain, Fireball Institute)

The 10-day average curve of the number of active addresses allows us to see a trend of active addresses more visually. Next we can look at the connection between price and the number of active addresses.

(Data source: https://www.quandl.com/data/BCHAIN-Blockchain, Fireball Institute)

After adding the price there is a lot of content and information worth discovering, first from the end of November December 16, bitcoin compared to the previous has a relatively high price level, this time the overall activity is also relatively high, the number of active addresses maintained at around 450,000 fluctuations, then until June 17, the bitcoin price appeared a considerable increase, this time we look back at the number of active addresses can obviously see in late April 17, the number of active addresses has begun to have a significant upward momentum (at center of map) The number of active addresses at this time has revealed that the market's expectations for the overall are better than before. In layman's terms, at this time, the market recognizes the value of bitcoin, which brings about an increase in demand, which drives price growth.

(at center of map) After rising to a certain level, the number of active addresses began a clear downward trend in early June, roughly 10-15 days before the price drop. Although the drop in price was not large during this phase and showed a relatively stable state afterwards, the change in the number of active addresses can still serve as a relatively clear predictor.

(at center of map) Over the next long period of time, it can be seen that this phase saw a near-simultaneous upward trend in the number of active addresses as the price of bitcoin began to see a rather frenzied rise, followed by a peak in bitcoin around December, while the number of active addresses likewise peaked around this time, enough to see that the frenzied price caused many investors to become concerned and active at this time.

Then as Bitcoin began to decline after reaching its price peak as of now, the opposite of the previous comparison occurred, that is, the price movement began to precede the change in the number of active addresses.

(at center of map) When the price has plummeted for a period of time, the market only with the reaction, from the traditional secondary investment market law, this situation is more reasonable, because the plunge came too quickly, so most of the investors are still active, the overall market expectations are still good, with further price fluctuations and decline, the market lagging response to keep up.

Overall, the direction of change in the number of active addresses can somewhat predict the market's expectations for bitcoin price movement, thus revealing future price movements.

(Data source: https://www.quandl.com/data/BCHAIN-Blockchain, Fireball Institute)

Another interesting phenomenon that came to light while gathering information was also between the number of wallets and the price. And it is rather interesting to note that the number of wallets and the number of active addresses seem to have opposite effects on the price of bitcoin, at least from the actual data, which shows that before bitcoin reached its price peak, the change in the number of wallet growth actually followed the change in price, while after reaching the peak, the number of wallet growth actually preceded the price drop, and even with the bitcoin price shock since '18, the number of wallet growth continues to fall, which shows that the market in general is in a strong wait-and-see mood regarding bitcoin and even the digital currency market in general.

Finally, judging from the number of active Bitcoin addresses and the change in the number of wallets, the next period is likely to be an upward one for Bitcoin, combined with an increasingly obvious and clear policy direction, the acceptance and support of more countries and an increasingly mature industry standard and regulatory system all make the future direction of the digital currency market even more exciting to watch.

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